The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis B virus vaccination and transmission among men who have sex with men: A mathematical modelling study

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccinations among men who have sex with men (MSM) has been considerably lower than before the pandemic. Moreover, less frequent HBV testing and a reduction in numbers of sex partners have been reported. We assessed the impact of these COVID-19-related changes on HBV transmission among MSM in the Netherlands.MethodsWe estimated the changes in sexual activity, HBV testing, and HBV vaccination among MSM during the pandemic from Dutch data. We used a deterministic compartmental model and investigated scenarios with small or large declines in sexual activity, testing, and vaccination for the current phase of the pandemic (without available data). We examined the increase in HBV vaccinations needed to prevent further increase in HBV incidence.ResultsWith a decrease in numbers of sex partners of 15–25% during the first lockdown and 5% during the second lockdown, we found a decline of 6.6% in HBV incidence in 2020, despite a >70% reduction in HBV testing and vaccination during the first lockdown. With numbers of sex partners rebounding close to pre-pandemic level in 2021, and a reduction of 15% in testing and 30% in vaccination in 2021, we found an increase of 1.4% in incidence in 2021 and 3.1% in 2026. With these changes, an increase of ≥60% in HBV vaccinations in 2022 would be needed to bring the HBV incidence in 2023 back to the level that it would have had if the COVID-19-related changes had not occurred.ConclusionsDespite reductions in sexual activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, the decrease in HBV vaccinations may result in a small increase in HBV incidence after 2021, which may persist for years. It is important to restore the vaccination level and limit further increase in HBV transmission among MSM.     

Sudden Cardiac Death in Patients With Type 1 Versus Type 2 Diabetes

ObjectiveTo investigate the association between type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) with risk of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA).MethodsIn a prospective community-based study of SCA from February 1, 2002, through November 30, 2019, we ascertained 2771 cases age 18 years of age or older and matched them to 8313 controls based on geography, age, sex, and race/ethnicity. We used logistic regression to evaluate the independent association between diabetes, T1D, T2D, and SCA.ResultsPatients had a mean age of 64.5±15.9 years, were 33.3% female and 23.9% non-White race. Overall, 36.7% (n=1016) of cases and 23.8% (n=1981) of controls had diabetes. Among individuals with diabetes, the proportion of T1D was 6.5% (n=66) among cases and 2.0% among controls (n=40). Diabetes was associated with 1.5-times higher odds of SCA. Compared with those without diabetes, the odds ratio and 95% CI for SCA was 4.36 (95% CI, 2.81 to 6.75; P<.001) in T1D and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.30 to 1.63; P<.001) in T2D after multivariable adjustment. Among those with diabetes, the odds of having SCA were 2.41 times higher in T1D than in T2D (95% CI, 1.53 to 3.80; P<.001). Cases of SCA with T1D were more likely to have an unwitnessed arrest, less likely to receive resuscitation, and less likely to survive compared with those with T2D.ConclusionType 1 diabetes was more strongly associated with SCA compared with T2D and had less favorable outcomes following resuscitation. Diabetes type could influence the approach to risk stratification and prevention of SCA.     

Dose-response modeling of NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated diseases: asbestos,lung cancer,and malignant mesothelioma as examples

Abstract

Can a single fiber of amphibole asbestos increase the risk of lung cancer or malignant mesothelioma (MM)? Traditional linear no-threshold (LNT) risk assessment assumptions imply that the answer is yes: there is no safe exposure level. This paper draws on recent scientific progress in inflammation biology, especially elucidation of the activation thresholds for NLRP3 inflammasomes and resulting chronic inflammation, to model dose-response relationships for malignant mesothelioma and lung cancer risks caused by asbestos exposures. The modeling integrates a physiologically based pharmacokinetics (PBPK) front end with inflammation-driven two-stage clonal expansion (I-TSCE) models of carcinogenesis to describe how exposure leads to chronic inflammation, which in turn promotes carcinogenesis. Together, the combined PBPK and I-TSCE modeling predict that there are practical thresholds for exposure concentration below which asbestos exposure does not cause chronic inflammation in less than a lifetime, and therefore does not increase chronic inflammation-dependent cancer risks. Quantitative examples using model parameter estimates drawn from the literature suggest that practical thresholds may be within about a factor of 2 of some past exposure levels for some workers. The I-TSCE modeling framework explains previous puzzling aspects of asbestos epidemiology, such as why age at first exposure is a better predictor of lifetime MM risk than exposure duration. It may be a valuable tool for risk analysts when LNT assumptions are not justified due to inflammation response thresholds mediating dose-response relationships.     

Surgical management for chronic pain

Chronic pain in the UK affects up to 43% of the population. The consequences include physical and psychological distress, loss of function, employment, family and social strain and increased utilization of healthcare services. Modern pain management services operate across primary, secondary and tertiary care and incorporate general practitioners, psychologists, physiotherapists, pharmacists, specialist nurses, pain physicians and surgeons. This allows for a coordinated approach to chronic pain, engaging the patient in a structured pathway from conservative measures, through to surgery if necessary. Surgical interventions have been utilized effectively throughout the 20^th century for the treatment of a variety of conditions, some of which are now effectively managed with improved pharmacological approaches or novel neuromodulation techniques. Ablative procedures that aim to permanently interrupt the pain pathway still represent the final solution for some conditions, particularly those with cancer associated pain; however, the search for less invasive, less risky measures continues. This is stimulated by an increased understanding of the neurobiology of pain transmission and the physiological changes which occur in persistent pain.     

Balloon Pulmonary Angioplasty for the Treatment of Nonoperable Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension: Single-Center Experience with Low Initial Complication Rate

PurposeTo evaluate the safety and efficacy of balloon pulmonary angioplasty (BPA) for nonoperable chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) patients during the initial experience of a single center.MethodsA total of 18 CTEPH patients (5 with residual pulmonary hypertension after pulmonary endarterectomy) were treated with BPA during the period 2014–2018 and were retrospectively reviewed. Mean age was 61 ± 19 years; 55% were female; mean pulmonary artery pressure was 44 ± 12 mmHg; cardiac output was 4.3 ± 1.0 l/min; and pulmonary vascular resistance was 8.4 ± 3.6 WU. Patients were evaluated by New York Heart Association functional class, 6-minute walk distance, N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide, echocardiography, right heart catheterization, and before and after completions of BPA.ResultsA total of 91 procedures were performed, with a median number of 4 BPA sessions per patient (range, 2–8). There were no deaths or major complications requiring extracorporeal support or (non)invasive ventilation. The most common complication was self-limiting hemoptysis (3%). According to Society of Interventional Radiology classification, 4 mild, 4 moderate, and 1 severe adverse events were noted. Invasive hemodynamics significantly improved, with a cardiac index increase of 15% (P = .0333), decrease of mean pulmonary artery pressure of 30% (P = .0013), and decrease of pulmonary vascular resistance of 45% (P = .0048). Stroke volume index (P = .0171) and pulmonary arterial compliance (P = .0004) were also significantly enhanced.ConclusionsBPA significantly improves cardiopulmonary hemodynamics with an acceptable safety profile. Further studies assessing the long-term efficacy of BPA are required.